April 3-9 Weekly Update
- Cyrus Beermann
- Apr 10, 2023
- 4 min read
A week and a half into the season and there is no shortage of excitement. Sure it's early, but every win counts in this long season.
Take the Rays for example. Tampa is off to a historic start at 9-0 hitting more homeruns (24) than runs allowed (18). Let's call as it is though, Tampa hasn't played the toughest competition (Detroit, Washington, and Oakland). That aside, the Rays run differential is +57, which is more than double the next closest team. We knew the starting rotation in Tampa was elite and even they have exceeded expectations. The offense is firing on all cylinders leading the league in runs (75), second in batting average (.289), and holding the lowest strike outs against (58). The Rays have turned into the early front runners in the AL East where every win matters.
On the other hand, some pre-season favorites are off to dreadful starts. The Astros and Phillies who matched up in the 2022 World Series are still apparently hungover from November. Houston reps a 4-6 record while Philadelphia boasts a 3-6 record. Although Houston's is off to a slow start, they are playing pretty good baseball and they will see their fair share of wins if they continue on this track. The Phillies, however, are off to a slow start behind some suspect pitching. Wheeler (5.59 ERA) and Nola (7.45 ERA) look out of sorts, Taijuan Walker (6.00 ERA) has not impressed so far, and the new bullpen pieces have yet to show why they were added. Fortunately, the Phillies snuck out two wins against the Reds over the weekend bringing their record closer to .500, but as a top team, you need to beat top teams and taking one total win away in the opening two series against Texas and New York is not how you repeat a National League Championship season.
It is tough not to mention the Brewers hot start (7-2) coming at the hands of two rookie of the year candidates. Joey Weimer starts the season hitting .333 adding his first career home run this week. As an added bonus, Weimer's been great defensively compiling two outfield assists. Brice Turang is the other Brewer youngster providing some firepower. His first big league HR was grand knocking in four against the Mets. In the same division, St. Louis' Jordan Walker has established his presence hitting two HR's in the first week and a half. The big guy looks to be a force of the future for the Cards and these rookies in the NL Central may be the make-or-break for these clubs.
There are plenty of noteworthy starts to the season. Statistically speaking, however, there are a few guys who stand out. Boston's Adam Duvall proves to be a huge addition in the middle of a Red Sox offense that lost Bogaerts and Martinez in the same year. Duvall is mashing the Red Sox to victory slashing .455/4 HRs/14 RBI's through the first three series.
Bryan Reynolds is making his case as a valuable trade piece slashing .405 / 5 HRs / 14 RBI's. One of two things are likely if Reynolds keeps this up, he's going to get paid by Pittsburgh, especially after O'Neill Cruz suffered an ankle fracture Sunday, or Pittsburgh sells while his value is inflated. Either way, Bryan Reynolds deserves a contract and/or a chance to win if he continues to put up productive numbers.
Lastly, the high powered Blue Jays offense is being led by Matt Chapman. His stat line is off to a good start slashing . 475/ 2 HR / 14 RBI's but, even more impressively, he's in the 95th percentile of hard hit rate meaning he's not missing many good pitches. Chapman, in a contract year, has plenty of protection in Toronto and is proving he's more than just a defensive 3rd baseman.
We couldn't have asked for a better start to the season and it was topped off with fireworks on Sunday Night Baseball and our first benches clearing brawl in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Sunday Night Baseball showed the Padres beating up on Atlanta to the tune of 10 runs, six of which were provided by old man Nelly (Nelson Cruz) who is still mashing baseballs. Seth Lugo, the Padres new starter, looked the part going six strong against a potent Braves lineup. As for the brawl, it started after O'Neill Cruz stumbled his way into a soft collision with White Sox catcher Seby Zavala who overreacted to the contact creating an unnecessary shoving match on the field. Cruz, who fractured his left ankle, is probably out for the remainder of the year because he couldn't decide when/how to slide into home plate. The resulting scrum on the field should never have happened, however. Zavala is a big league catcher receiving an errant thrown from third-base causing Cruz to make a split second decision on where to slide. Unfortunately, Cruz didn't figure it out and awkwardly tripped his way across the plate after suffering an ankle fracture and Seby, a back-up catcher, took it as a personal attack.
Here's to hoping we see more fireworks as the summer heat approaches!
--Cyrus Beermann
Like you said, the Rays will regress to the mean (or a little above the mean), once the competition is a little more stout. There's no way that teams hitting will maintain anything close to the current level. I still think they are an 88-92 win team.